That was nearly three years ago.
“It’s not that I don’t want to work. I’d love to work,” Smith said. “People just aren’t hiring.”
The 4.3 percent national jobless rate seems encouraging, but the under-the-hood numbers aren’t.
There are roughly one million more job seekers than available jobs, according to an analysis by U.S. Bank. The 42.5 percent underemployment rate among recent college graduates is the highest since 2000, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Communications graduates are among the highest underemployment majors, according to Forbes, and Smith has a degree in Mass Communication from Wright State University. (He was a student of mine when I taught there).
Also, one in four jobless people have been out of work for at least six months, meaning they are classified as long-term unemployed, and they face a tough road, according to Chip Lupov, an analyst at WalletHub, the personal finance company.
Projections show “Only about 11% of those who do face long-term unemployment are going to return to steady full-time employment within a year,” Lupo said in an interview.
Lupo called the labor market “stable but stagnant,” as shown in yet another number. On average, one job opening receives 250 resumes, and only two percent get an interview, according to Novoresume.
“I know that’s what a lot of people are struggling with now because it’s a bottleneck for those already out of work,” Lupo said.
I often hear from people that the unemployed should stop whining and take any job that comes their way, whether at a big box store, a fast-food restaurant, or as a customer service representative.
But that’s not easy either. Businesses might not want to train employees they believe will leave at the first opportunity for a job in their chosen profession. “You invest all this money in people, and then you wind up eating the cost when they leave. Then you’re forced to hire someone (else) and have to train them all over again.”
The job market will get worse as AI and other technologies do the work humans once did. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the economy will add more than five million jobs by 2034, mostly in health professions needed to care for an aging population. Data entry specialists, research analysts and paralegals are among those who will suffer large losses.
Smith has revised his resume, attended networking events, and sought job advice. He and his fiancée have postponed getting married, buying a larger house, and starting a family until he finds a job.
His story isn’t uncommon in a job market that, on the surface, seems robust, but underneath, is anything but.
“It’s frustrating because I just want to live,” Smith said. “I want to get that prosperity. I want to work hard for it. And I feel like I’m spinning my wheels and twiddling my thumbs.”
He doesn’t regret giving up his job to spend time with his father, who died in 2023. But he also knew that he was taking a gamble. “I was worried that, taking this on and doing the right thing for my father, it would eventually come and bite me.
“And it definitely has.”
Ray Marcano’s column appears on these pages each Sunday. He can be reached at raymarcanoddn@gmail.com
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